Hudson Honeybone, '26
In 2023, the FBI confirmed 18,450 homicides in the United States, yet only half of those cases have since been cleared. This has been a growing national trend in the past decades, with murder clearance rates steadily decreasing. As a country, we sit short of a 50% murder clearance rate, with that number dropping into the 30’s in crime-ridden communities like Oakland and Chicago. This is one of the lowest clearance rates in the industrialized world; for comparison, Germany, the world's leader in homicide clearance, consistently solves 90% of their murders. Annually, the United States spends around $130 billion dollars on police departments, supplying them with ample manpower and advanced crime-solving technology. So, why are we still not solving murders? What’s holding us back?
The Trends and Statistics
To further explore this looming question through a more local lens, I spoke with TBI (Tennessee Bureau of Investigation) field agent Steven Kennard. As a field agent, Kennard is trained in all sectors/phases of murder/criminal investigation: he can handle a firearm, process a crime scene, package evidence, and pursue suspects.
Kennard stated that most murders are a result of some other altercation, whether that be domestic violence, robbery, battery, and so on – it's a resultant crime. According to Kennard, that is one of the reasons why addressing and attempting to prevent murder as a standalone crime is so difficult: it is almost always associated with some other criminal activity. To crack down on narcotics, you stifle the importation of drugs. To deter bank robbers, you reinforce security. But for murder, there isn’t an effective way to directly address the problem, because it encompasses such a wide range of behaviors and activities. Taking that into consideration, in culmination with murder being a resultant crime, this has remained true for centuries. Yet the murder clearance rate has continued to decline. There has to be more to the puzzle.
Upon starting my research, I conjectured that falling murder clearance rates may be partially attributed to a rise in desensitization to violence, perpetuated via different media sources. On the news, I’ve heard that exposure to violent video games or movies has created an air of normalcy surrounding murder and has suppressed our reactions to such behaviors. However, when I asked Agent Kennard about the potential link between declining murder clearance and desensitization, he reassured me the murder of someone close still has a profound emotional impact on loved ones and witnesses: “I’ve worked homicides involving young adults. I’ve seen how it touches them emotionally. It's then that they realize this is not what they've seen online –this is real.” He says that even though murders may occur more frequently, and we have been exposed to those types of behaviors online, it has, “by no means become normalized.” So, we move to the next theory.
According to Philip Cook, a public policy researcher and murder clearance specialist, there has been a growing lack of trust in the law enforcement, especially among high crime communities. He says that, "Communities that are especially impacted by gun violence believe that the police are ineffective or indifferent, and as a result, they're less willing to cooperate and provide information the police need to have successful investigations." Not only does there seem to be declining trust in the police department, but a general mistrust in the governments that are incapable of protecting their citizens. According to Cook, if crimes go unsolved, it poses a threat to the democratic process, since the relationship between the government and the governed begins to decay. In some cities, however, murder seems so systemic and entrenched in the community that it seems impossible to root out and rein in. Sometimes, witnesses that could assist in the case remain silent to avoid being labeled a “snitch” in their communities. They would rather a murderer run free than to be shunned by their environment. How does this principle apply to our community though?
When asked about the link between lacking public trust and murder clearance, Tennessee Agent Kennard corroborated Cook’s opinion, “Absolutely… public perception of law enforcement affects greatly how we are able to do our job and how successful we are able to do our job. We’re relying on local people who are sympathetic to law enforcement. It's critical to have information from the public and information from the witnesses.” Finally, we found it – a solid clue into why these murderers run free: declining public trust in the law enforcement. In terms of our Nashville community, Kennard said that public trust has been trending downwards, as is around the nation. The Covenant shooting and the government's lackluster response has only accelerated the downward trend.
Kennard said the force is working to improve their reputation within the Nashville community, hoping to rectify any past wrongs. They are focusing their restorative efforts on high-density, low income communities, since they are hotbeds/catalysts of murder and criminal activity. First and foremost, “the force has to communicate and be open with the public,” Kennard said. He continued with, “I think the trend can be reversed, just by those in law enforcement being upfront and trustworthy.” However, there are also certain factors that law enforcement cannot control in terms of public trust. Frequently, witnesses are cornered by their communities and intimidated into silence. If they speak out and tip off the police, they might be disowned by their communities, or worse, even killed. Kennard said these scenarios happen quite often, usually within the realm of gang violence or family affairs. The only solace the force can provide for these witnesses is reassurance that they will remain anonymous, which most times, isn’t a convincing enough proposition.
Falling murder clearance rates isn’t a two dimensional issue, and framing it as such misrepresents the whole dynamic. I experienced firsthand from Mr. Kennard the complexity of these investigations. But, with law enforcement, it's their duty to follow through with these cases, despite the many barriers they may encounter, whether that be an uncooperative witness or a reluctant homeowner who refuses to issue a search warrant. In the words of Agent Kennard, “We can’t just throw up our hands when someone refuses to talk. I’ll do whatever it takes to break through, even if that means visiting them ten times over.” Our TBI Agents are persistent with their work. We can't blame them for declining murder rates. With his help, I have identified some concrete causes as to why less murders are being solved: declining public trust in the force and environmental barriers faced by witnesses. But this is only the surface and the question still remains: how deep does it go?
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